28 replies to this topic

[brando090]

Ive been seeing the prices of 452's skyrocket on ebay. Im not sure whats going on, but the prices are up 40% at least.

[david i]

Ive been seeing the prices of 452's skyrocket on ebay. Im not sure whats going on, but the prices are up 40% at least.

Such claims require a temporal context, and require control for various factors, not least of which is condition. Barring such, it is very easy to say that 452 prices are-- for example-- down.

regards

david

[brando090]

Ive been seeing the prices of 452's skyrocket on ebay. Im not sure whats going on, but the prices are up 40% at least.

Such claims require a temporal context, and require control for various factors, not least of which is condition. Barring such, it is very easy to say that 452 prices are-- for example-- down.

regards

david

That's a fair argument, the full length models are what i was particularly pointing out will no damage, just the fine smell of being old .

[david i]

Ive been seeing the prices of 452's skyrocket on ebay. Im not sure whats going on, but the prices are up 40% at least.

Such claims require a temporal context, and require control for various factors, not least of which is condition. Barring such, it is very easy to say that 452 prices are-- for example-- down.

regards

david

That's a fair argument, the full length models are what i was particularly pointing out will no damage, just the fine smell of being old .

Unhelpful I fear. I still see "down" happening.

regards

d

[brando090]

Ive been seeing the prices of 452's skyrocket on ebay. Im not sure whats going on, but the prices are up 40% at least.

Such claims require a temporal context, and require control for various factors, not least of which is condition. Barring such, it is very easy to say that 452 prices are-- for example-- down.

regards

david

That's a fair argument, the full length models are what i was particularly pointing out will no damage, just the fine smell of being old .

Unhelpful I fear. I still see "down" happening.

regards

d

... Your information was helpful... Like everything that goes up, it must come down.

[George]

So the prices for 452 are now going down? Not up like initially mentioned?

George

[brando090]

So the prices for 452 are now going down? Not up like initially mentioned?

George

He says down, i saw up... i guess its just a luck of the draw

[david i]

He says down, i saw up... i guess its just a luck of the draw

On the contrary. Rather, i was pointing out your claim lacks merit.

regards

david

[brando090]

He says down, i saw up... i guess its just a luck of the draw

On the contrary. Rather, i was pointing out your claim lacks merit.

regards

david

Here's some merit

Price went to $313.42;

http://cgi.ebay.com/...#ht_1800wt_1397

Price went to $262;

http://cgi.ebay.com/...#ht_3130wt_1163


Id say 6 months back you'd be able to pick them up for $120-190, but now i guess there is an influx in demand. Not saying these aren't deals or anything along those lines, just point out there's an increase in price which is most likely from demand.

Edited by brando090, 28 August 2012 - 05:46 AM.

[david i]

Here's some merit

Price went to $313.42;

http://cgi.ebay.com/...#ht_1800wt_1397

Price went to $262;

http://cgi.ebay.com/...#ht_3130wt_1163


Id say 6 months back you'd be able to pick them up for $120-190, but now i guess there is an influx in demand. Not saying these aren't deals or anything along those lines, just point out there's an increase in price which is most likely from demand.

A. read my first post.

B. Your examples this week do indicate prices are down. This again shows, that context is important in a conversation such as this.

C. Do provide some cohort data, controlled for some of the key variables. Would you like to list some of the obvious variables?

Shall we conclude that demand is plummeting?

regards

david

[brando090]

Here's some merit

Price went to $313.42;

http://cgi.ebay.com/...#ht_1800wt_1397

Price went to $262;

http://cgi.ebay.com/...#ht_3130wt_1163


Id say 6 months back you'd be able to pick them up for $120-190, but now i guess there is an influx in demand. Not saying these aren't deals or anything along those lines, just point out there's an increase in price which is most likely from demand.

A. read my first post.

B. Your examples this week do indicate prices are down. This again shows, that context is important in a conversation such as this.

C. Do provide some cohort data, controlled for some of the key variables. Would you like to list some of the obvious variables?

Shall we conclude that demand is plummeting?

regards

david

I suppose the variables would be unrestored pens, and non retail.

[FarmBoy]

Even with the inflation in depressed prices, I am not looking for the afore mentioned pen at the current recursive market.

[david i]

I suppose the variables would be unrestored pens, and non retail.

A mere warm-up.

This thread has merit, no doubt, for its instructive value.

Let's name a bunch more variables that go into assessing state-of-the-market for a given pen, rather than just the use of imagination as in the first post of this thread.

regards

d

[George]

From a quick search of completed auctions titled "sterling waterman," I have been able to find the following auctions of Waterman 452 pens that have ended over the last two months or so. I'm sure there are many more that I missed. All of these were auctions. In my own observations for most overlays, including waterman X52 pens, I would say that there has been an overall decline in demand over the past 5 years. This is my own observation based on tracking ebay auctions and prices over the last 5 or so years.

Ebay item number:

120924807933 , Missing lever, Gothic pattern - $90
160822149852 , missing lever and clip, filigree - $102
270989341093 , missing clip, Gothic pattern - $113.50
320946006551 , complete, but not mint, filigree - $132.50
280914070340 , missing clip, Pansy Panel - $139
320954899747 , (though not a 452,this 452 1/2 Pansy Panel appears to be decent)-$143.50
320946018313 , complete, filigree - $169.50
300761526091 , complete (seller states the pen never had a clip. No clip-cap holes to be found) - $175 opening but this pen did not get a bid
170891040990 , missing ball of clip, filigree- $180.59 BUT this came in a lot with a 0552 1/2 V
110928761826 , missing clip, Not a 452 but a 454 filigree - $192.49
280933677975 , complete, decent condition, filigree - $194.50
290764104321 , complete, filigree - $214.07
290763447727 , complete, filigree - $222.76
251083409579 , complete SET, filigree - $262
380444532661 , complete, filigree, "Restored" from a pen seller in England, no better condition than previous auctions- $368.12


Regards,
George

Edited by George, 28 August 2012 - 12:10 PM.

[Teej47]

One could certainly conclude from George's data that the price variance could well have more to do with the quality/cache' of a given example than changes in overall demand (note first three pens descriptions begin with "missing" while last three begin with "complete").

One could also conclude by comparing apples to apples (i.e., "complete, filligree") that prices have increased over time. Two months seems a might short time span, though.

There's a reason, for example, why climatology data isn't considered significant unless there's at least 30 years worth of it. It takes a big picture to define an actual trend.

Tim

[FarmBoy]

Let's name a bunch more variables that go into assessing state-of-the-market for a given pen, rather than just the use of imagination as in the first post of this thread.

Ok. A partial list.

1: Nib (style, point, condition, flex, etc.)
2: Pattern (common, rare, custom, etc.)
3: Condition (restored, fresh from the wild)
4: Seller (I will pay more for a 9/10 pen from vacumania than I would for the same pen rated 9/10 from the OP)
5: Patina (on an overlay this is important at least to me)
6: Supply (number available for sale)
7: Demand (who is looking)
8: Venue (retail site, ebay, pen show)

A note on Venue, since we are apparently limiting this to eBay, the quality of the pictures and description as well as 4 plays big into the final bid.

We can continue if needed.

[david i]

One could certainly conclude from George's data that the price variance could well have more to do with the quality/cache' of a given example than changes in overall demand (note first three pens descriptions begin with "missing" while last three begin with "complete").

One could also conclude by comparing apples to apples (i.e., "complete, filligree") that prices have increased over time. Two months seems a might short time span, though.

There's a reason, for example, why climatology data isn't considered significant unless there's at least 30 years worth of it. It takes a big picture to define an actual trend.

Tim

Hi Tim,

While always there is room for gut feelings and vague general impressions, such things are more sound when based on solid experience and on solid consideration of issues in play. I've been a bit obscure in my posts... for a reason

How to compare 452's?

Control for pattern

Control for condition

Control for venue

Control for season

Control for quality/feedback of seller.

Control for quality of photographs

Control for level of guarantee/warrantee from seller.

Awareness of historical price points in the setting of above.

Part of the poking at the OP, besides his somewhat grandiose claim that any widely traded (as much as any old pen can be "widely traded) pen has bumped hugely in value in couple months, stems from suspicion that he really wasn't much focused on the issues in play

-d

[david i]

Oops. Look like Todd beat me to it.

d

[sloegin]

Ebay also offers anomalies such as 300715230212.

[brando090]

One could certainly conclude from George's data that the price variance could well have more to do with the quality/cache' of a given example than changes in overall demand (note first three pens descriptions begin with "missing" while last three begin with "complete").

One could also conclude by comparing apples to apples (i.e., "complete, filligree") that prices have increased over time. Two months seems a might short time span, though.

There's a reason, for example, why climatology data isn't considered significant unless there's at least 30 years worth of it. It takes a big picture to define an actual trend.

Tim

Hi Tim,

While always there is room for gut feelings and vague general impressions, such things are more sound when based on solid experience and on solid consideration of issues in play. I've been a bit obscure in my posts... for a reason

How to compare 452's?

Control for pattern

Control for condition

Control for venue

Control for season

Control for quality/feedback of seller.

Control for quality of photographs

Control for level of guarantee/warrantee from seller.

Awareness of historical price points in the setting of above.

Part of the poking at the OP, besides his somewhat grandiose claim that any widely traded (as much as any old pen can be "widely traded) pen has bumped hugely in value in couple months, stems from suspicion that he really wasn't much focused on the issues in play

-d

I'll play the game, i have been bidding regular amounts on the silver overlay 452 pens, and they've been going more than what i remember them at. I dont know, im wrong your right. Tell you the truth, when im buying i take a gamble, so really when i check out the feedback and everything is all good (doesn't matter if he has 5 feedback, or 5,000) if he's a frequent user on the bay and has over a 95% he's good. I mean i remember buying a lot of pens (blurry photo) but i could make out a Waterman, so that's why i bought it. It's like storage lockers, you cant just take a risk, you have to take a risk.

Edited by brando090, 28 August 2012 - 05:13 PM.