28 replies to this topic

[Roger W.]

Note that none of the above pens is immune to becoming worth less than melt.

regards

david

Interesting concept...

David, you have touched on this idea before, and I find it very interesting : If gold were to rise 3 fold, would the pen values likewise rise 3 fold? All of David's pens pictured are currently worth more than scrap value. As gold prices go up, the gap between collectible value and scrap value certainly shrinks, making even collectible, desirable solid gold pens prone to scrapping ie. when market value equals the scrap value. We have seen this occur in the market with Skyline Performance prices over the past 8 years.

Now, if gold were to go up 3 fold, I think scrapping ethics would be the least of our problems.

Regards,
George

George;

That is the very real problem that as gold value goes up collector interest/ability/resources are not keeping pace. It's hard because I could really use the money but, I've gold pens that are worth at least $200 melt that I've only $100 in. I should cave at some point and melt the lot. Three fold increase to $600? Gosh that starts to be real money but, I can't let them go - they are just objects but, I'm a true collector. What a razors edge between collecting and hoarding.

Another problem is that our hobby is not big enough. You've a lot of people that would pay $50 for a pen but, it thins out quickly the higher you go. Further the farther off the beaten path of the big four the less depth in interested collectors. Note the Swann results on the Chiltons (I know they also had some issues but, still). How many collectors are in the market for solid 14K pens and then how many units can these people buy. It's really too thin a hobby in a lot of respects and that becomes the question for the future. Is the younger generation only going to be interested in writing with cheap pens or will there be a bunch to replace those that will be out of the hobby in the next decade?

Roger W.

[Roger W.]

If the nuances of cachet (value in 1940, rarity today, etc) makes a pen worth $500 to collectors, largely such a pen will not become $1400 demand just because gold rises.

regards

david

That's what I'm getting at. You only get to higher collector prices, not on gold value, but on demand. There would have to be more people entering the hobby with big money. There are a lot more gold speculators than potential hobbyists sitting on the sidelines.

Nibs, whole new argument on grinding being unethical if the pool of original nibs is rapidly dwindling. Collectors could have it over users as the collector group may be willing to pay more for originality.

Roger W.

[david i]

If the nuances of cachet (value in 1940, rarity today, etc) makes a pen worth $500 to collectors, largely such a pen will not become $1400 demand just because gold rises.

regards

david

That's what I'm getting at. You only get to higher collector prices, not on gold value, but on demand. There would have to be more people entering the hobby with big money. There are a lot more gold speculators than potential hobbyists sitting on the sidelines.

Nibs, whole new argument on grinding being unethical if the pool of original nibs is rapidly dwindling. Collectors could have it over users as the collector group may be willing to pay more for originality.

Roger W.

Hi Roger,

Yeah. There really isn't much in debate here. We've seen this trend with numerous collectables. Collectables thrive when their intrinsic/materials value is far less than collector value. A plastic red Vacumatic Maxima at $500 is fairly safe, as the value of old celluloid is not likely to trump that number. And, putting aside moralizing (Collectors! Though shalt serve the hobby and not the demon, Mammon, and though shalt preserve those gold pens), it will prove an interesting test of attitude and/or character to see who keeps pens as pens when the pens cannot be sold as collectables for their rising melt value.

If all the pens I showed now had $4000 each in melt value, and if no one would offer more than $1800 each within the hobby...

-d

[Roger W.]

Hi Roger,

Yeah. There really isn't much in debate here. We've seen this trend with numerous collectables. Collectables thrive when their intrinsic/materials value is far less than collector value. A plastic red Vacumatic Maxima at $500 is fairly safe, as the value of old celluloid is not likely to trump that number. And, putting aside moralizing (Collectors! Though shalt serve the hobby and not the demon, Mammon, and though shalt preserve those gold pens), it will prove an interesting test of attitude and/or character to see who keeps pens as pens when the pens cannot be sold as collectables for their rising melt value.

If all the pens I showed now had $4000 each in melt value, and if no one would offer more than $1800 each within the hobby...

-d

I think your estate would have to sell gold for melt in that case. Many of us will hold almost no matter what. I think I have $350 in my "In Honor of" Sheaffer and I've been offered $2,000 and could probably get a little more but will hold. On my 14K or anybody's that hold these you are likely to have duplicates - those could get melted. It really depends between collector/dealer mentality and where you fall on the continuum. I'd be hard pressed to sell but many others wouldn't. As I started this, there are a lot of old collectors and they soon will not have a choice as the estate will decide or ultimate receivers that likely will not care.

I feel gold is overvalued personally, way more speculation than value. But a run up could catch a lot of pens and cash for gold storefronts are going away soon.

Roger W.

[david i]

s
I think your estate would have to sell gold for melt in that case. Many of us will hold almost no matter what. I think I have $350 in my "In Honor of" Sheaffer and I've been offered $2,000 and could probably get a little more but will hold. On my 14K or anybody's that hold these you are likely to have duplicates - those could get melted. It really depends between collector/dealer mentality and where you fall on the continuum. I'd be hard pressed to sell but many others wouldn't. As I started this, there are a lot of old collectors and they soon will not have a choice as the estate will decide or ultimate receivers that likely will not care.

I feel gold is overvalued personally, way more speculation than value. But a run up could catch a lot of pens and cash for gold storefronts are going away soon.

Roger W.

Or I might be tempted at some point....

Who knows?

I'll stay away from gold value discussion. There are arguments both way, some viewing gold as something whose value reflect lack of faith (and objective devaluation of) the dollar. Compare costs of gasoline, housing, food in terms of ounces of gold the last twenty years. Is the change as impressive as the change in gold's "dollar value"?

-d

[Roger W.]

s
I think your estate would have to sell gold for melt in that case. Many of us will hold almost no matter what. I think I have $350 in my "In Honor of" Sheaffer and I've been offered $2,000 and could probably get a little more but will hold. On my 14K or anybody's that hold these you are likely to have duplicates - those could get melted. It really depends between collector/dealer mentality and where you fall on the continuum. I'd be hard pressed to sell but many others wouldn't. As I started this, there are a lot of old collectors and they soon will not have a choice as the estate will decide or ultimate receivers that likely will not care.

I feel gold is overvalued personally, way more speculation than value. But a run up could catch a lot of pens and cash for gold storefronts are going away soon.

Roger W.

Or I might be tempted at some point....

Who knows?

I'll stay away from gold value discussion. There are arguments both way, some viewing gold as something whose value reflect lack of faith (and objective devaluation of) the dollar. Compare costs of gasoline, housing, food in terms of ounces of gold the last twenty years. Is the change as impressive as the change in gold's "dollar value"?

-d

David;

Gasoline is not a good comparison as I've heard the true price is oil at $50-60 a barrel and the rest is speculation. Food gets bumped a certain amount by this as well. Housing is undervalued, though I don't think you think it is, but when the appraisal system is so broken to undervalue property that we get HARP and HARP II which skip the appraisal process that speaks volumes that it is so. Appraisers that want to work a giving conservative appraisals.

Shipping strikes me as a very odd duck. With the price of gas you think that shipping would be expensive whereas you can get lots of stuff shipped for free. Though the airlines react as one would expect as the high cost of fuel is being offset by charging for baggage - so why is freight free?

Roger W.

[david i]

David;

Gasoline is not a good comparison as I've heard the true price is oil at $50-60 a barrel and the rest is speculation. Food gets bumped a certain amount by this as well. Housing is undervalued, though I don't think you think it is, but when the appraisal system is so broken to undervalue property that we get HARP and HARP II which skip the appraisal process that speaks volumes that it is so. Appraisers that want to work a giving conservative appraisals.

Shipping strikes me as a very odd duck. With the price of gas you think that shipping would be expensive whereas you can get lots of stuff shipped for free. Though the airlines react as one would expect as the high cost of fuel is being offset by charging for baggage - so why is freight free?

Roger W.

Doesn't matter. All factored in by the vast economic equilibrium. Housing prices doubled-tripled in few years while buyers' incomes... dropped. Total bubble. Bubble and Speculation, driven by our government (not, probably aimed at gold itself), is a large part of the reason gold is expensive... the actions by government have (wait for it) bot devalued and reduced faith in... the dollar. Gold often has been called a hedge rather than an investment. Might be. But, the proportion of value to gold relative to other goods has held more closely than has its price to the dollar. That correlation does not prove causation, but it certainly provides hypothesis.

Nothing really is shipped free. There are simply different ways to game the equation

-d

[plmadding]

Free shipping is a marketing tool. When a large company achieves economies of scale their price per unit drops and they are able to keep the price equal with competition (or lower) and then offer free shipping under whatever circumstances they specify, which gives them competitive advantage.

I hear advertised regularly on the radio, "Hedge against inflation...BUY GOLD!" Those who own gold want others to buy gold to increase demand and therefore price. Gold does seem to be quite different than many commodities in that as the price goes up...demand does not slow down much. Investors ,in my opinion, think that the price will continue to rise indefinitely so they best buy now!

I have often thought about going to the main gold dealer in the Wichita area and leaving them my number and telling them...look call me when anyone brings in a fountain pen or pencil (minor detail keeping me from doing it... is even if fantastic pens came in I couldn't afford to buy them...drat). I know my own grandfather has on multiple occasions told me he was going to sell for scrap his solid 14k Cross designers pencil his boss bought for him in the 50's at C.D.Peacock in Chicago. I told him he was not allowed under any circumstances to even go to that scrap dealer.

This is a very interesting thread.

Preston

[jonro]

If the nuances of cachet (value in 1940, rarity today, etc) makes a pen worth $500 to collectors, largely such a pen will not become $1400 demand just because gold rises.

regards

david

That's what I'm getting at. You only get to higher collector prices, not on gold value, but on demand. There would have to be more people entering the hobby with big money. There are a lot more gold speculators than potential hobbyists sitting on the sidelines.

Nibs, whole new argument on grinding being unethical if the pool of original nibs is rapidly dwindling. Collectors could have it over users as the collector group may be willing to pay more for originality.

Roger W.

Hi Roger,

Yeah. There really isn't much in debate here. We've seen this trend with numerous collectables. Collectables thrive when their intrinsic/materials value is far less than collector value. A plastic red Vacumatic Maxima at $500 is fairly safe, as the value of old celluloid is not likely to trump that number. And, putting aside moralizing (Collectors! Though shalt serve the hobby and not the demon, Mammon, and though shalt preserve those gold pens), it will prove an interesting test of attitude and/or character to see who keeps pens as pens when the pens cannot be sold as collectables for their rising melt value.

If all the pens I showed now had $4000 each in melt value, and if no one would offer more than $1800 each within the hobby...

-d

In regards to fountain pens, I feel that we are "preservers" as well as collectors. This applies more to patterned celluloid than solid gold fountain pens, as many of them deteriorate over time. Excellent examples become more difficult to find as time marches on. When I put a silicone sac in a Marine Green OS Balance and keep it in a safe place, I feel like I am preserving a piece of history that would rapidly disappear without collectors. If there were no collectors, the nibs would be pulled and the bodies discarded, something that unfortunately happens anyway. My collection isn't a museum and I might use any of my pens (except for one), but that's what they were made for.