Waterman 452 Prices
#2
Posted 28 August 2012 - 03:03 AM
Ive been seeing the prices of 452's skyrocket on ebay. Im not sure whats going on, but the prices are up 40% at least.
Such claims require a temporal context, and require control for various factors, not least of which is condition. Barring such, it is very easy to say that 452 prices are-- for example-- down.
regards
david
Email: isaacson@frontiernet.net
#3
Posted 28 August 2012 - 04:02 AM
Ive been seeing the prices of 452's skyrocket on ebay. Im not sure whats going on, but the prices are up 40% at least.
Such claims require a temporal context, and require control for various factors, not least of which is condition. Barring such, it is very easy to say that 452 prices are-- for example-- down.
regards
david
That's a fair argument, the full length models are what i was particularly pointing out will no damage, just the fine smell of being old .
#4
Posted 28 August 2012 - 04:12 AM
Ive been seeing the prices of 452's skyrocket on ebay. Im not sure whats going on, but the prices are up 40% at least.
Such claims require a temporal context, and require control for various factors, not least of which is condition. Barring such, it is very easy to say that 452 prices are-- for example-- down.
regards
david
That's a fair argument, the full length models are what i was particularly pointing out will no damage, just the fine smell of being old .
Unhelpful I fear. I still see "down" happening.
regards
d
Email: isaacson@frontiernet.net
#5
Posted 28 August 2012 - 04:33 AM
Ive been seeing the prices of 452's skyrocket on ebay. Im not sure whats going on, but the prices are up 40% at least.
Such claims require a temporal context, and require control for various factors, not least of which is condition. Barring such, it is very easy to say that 452 prices are-- for example-- down.
regards
david
That's a fair argument, the full length models are what i was particularly pointing out will no damage, just the fine smell of being old .
Unhelpful I fear. I still see "down" happening.
regards
d
... Your information was helpful... Like everything that goes up, it must come down.
#8
Posted 28 August 2012 - 05:02 AM
He says down, i saw up... i guess its just a luck of the draw
On the contrary. Rather, i was pointing out your claim lacks merit.
regards
david
Email: isaacson@frontiernet.net
#9
Posted 28 August 2012 - 05:46 AM
He says down, i saw up... i guess its just a luck of the draw
On the contrary. Rather, i was pointing out your claim lacks merit.
regards
david
Here's some merit
Price went to $313.42;
http://cgi.ebay.com/...#ht_1800wt_1397
Price went to $262;
http://cgi.ebay.com/...#ht_3130wt_1163
Id say 6 months back you'd be able to pick them up for $120-190, but now i guess there is an influx in demand. Not saying these aren't deals or anything along those lines, just point out there's an increase in price which is most likely from demand.
Edited by brando090, 28 August 2012 - 05:46 AM.
#10
Posted 28 August 2012 - 05:51 AM
Here's some merit
Price went to $313.42;
http://cgi.ebay.com/...#ht_1800wt_1397
Price went to $262;
http://cgi.ebay.com/...#ht_3130wt_1163
Id say 6 months back you'd be able to pick them up for $120-190, but now i guess there is an influx in demand. Not saying these aren't deals or anything along those lines, just point out there's an increase in price which is most likely from demand.
A. read my first post.
B. Your examples this week do indicate prices are down. This again shows, that context is important in a conversation such as this.
C. Do provide some cohort data, controlled for some of the key variables. Would you like to list some of the obvious variables?
Shall we conclude that demand is plummeting?
regards
david
Email: isaacson@frontiernet.net
#11
Posted 28 August 2012 - 06:36 AM
Here's some merit
Price went to $313.42;
http://cgi.ebay.com/...#ht_1800wt_1397
Price went to $262;
http://cgi.ebay.com/...#ht_3130wt_1163
Id say 6 months back you'd be able to pick them up for $120-190, but now i guess there is an influx in demand. Not saying these aren't deals or anything along those lines, just point out there's an increase in price which is most likely from demand.
A. read my first post.
B. Your examples this week do indicate prices are down. This again shows, that context is important in a conversation such as this.
C. Do provide some cohort data, controlled for some of the key variables. Would you like to list some of the obvious variables?
Shall we conclude that demand is plummeting?
regards
david
I suppose the variables would be unrestored pens, and non retail.
#13
Posted 28 August 2012 - 10:21 AM
I suppose the variables would be unrestored pens, and non retail.
A mere warm-up.
This thread has merit, no doubt, for its instructive value.
Let's name a bunch more variables that go into assessing state-of-the-market for a given pen, rather than just the use of imagination as in the first post of this thread.
regards
d
Email: isaacson@frontiernet.net
#14
Posted 28 August 2012 - 12:09 PM
Ebay item number:
120924807933 , Missing lever, Gothic pattern - $90
160822149852 , missing lever and clip, filigree - $102
270989341093 , missing clip, Gothic pattern - $113.50
320946006551 , complete, but not mint, filigree - $132.50
280914070340 , missing clip, Pansy Panel - $139
320954899747 , (though not a 452,this 452 1/2 Pansy Panel appears to be decent)-$143.50
320946018313 , complete, filigree - $169.50
300761526091 , complete (seller states the pen never had a clip. No clip-cap holes to be found) - $175 opening but this pen did not get a bid
170891040990 , missing ball of clip, filigree- $180.59 BUT this came in a lot with a 0552 1/2 V
110928761826 , missing clip, Not a 452 but a 454 filigree - $192.49
280933677975 , complete, decent condition, filigree - $194.50
290764104321 , complete, filigree - $214.07
290763447727 , complete, filigree - $222.76
251083409579 , complete SET, filigree - $262
380444532661 , complete, filigree, "Restored" from a pen seller in England, no better condition than previous auctions- $368.12
Regards,
George
Edited by George, 28 August 2012 - 12:10 PM.
#15
Posted 28 August 2012 - 04:25 PM
One could also conclude by comparing apples to apples (i.e., "complete, filligree") that prices have increased over time. Two months seems a might short time span, though.
There's a reason, for example, why climatology data isn't considered significant unless there's at least 30 years worth of it. It takes a big picture to define an actual trend.
Tim
#16
Posted 28 August 2012 - 04:32 PM
Let's name a bunch more variables that go into assessing state-of-the-market for a given pen, rather than just the use of imagination as in the first post of this thread.
Ok. A partial list.
1: Nib (style, point, condition, flex, etc.)
2: Pattern (common, rare, custom, etc.)
3: Condition (restored, fresh from the wild)
4: Seller (I will pay more for a 9/10 pen from vacumania than I would for the same pen rated 9/10 from the OP)
5: Patina (on an overlay this is important at least to me)
6: Supply (number available for sale)
7: Demand (who is looking)
8: Venue (retail site, ebay, pen show)
A note on Venue, since we are apparently limiting this to eBay, the quality of the pictures and description as well as 4 plays big into the final bid.
We can continue if needed.
#17
Posted 28 August 2012 - 04:35 PM
One could certainly conclude from George's data that the price variance could well have more to do with the quality/cache' of a given example than changes in overall demand (note first three pens descriptions begin with "missing" while last three begin with "complete").
One could also conclude by comparing apples to apples (i.e., "complete, filligree") that prices have increased over time. Two months seems a might short time span, though.
There's a reason, for example, why climatology data isn't considered significant unless there's at least 30 years worth of it. It takes a big picture to define an actual trend.
Tim
Hi Tim,
While always there is room for gut feelings and vague general impressions, such things are more sound when based on solid experience and on solid consideration of issues in play. I've been a bit obscure in my posts... for a reason
How to compare 452's?
Control for pattern
Control for condition
Control for venue
Control for season
Control for quality/feedback of seller.
Control for quality of photographs
Control for level of guarantee/warrantee from seller.
Awareness of historical price points in the setting of above.
Part of the poking at the OP, besides his somewhat grandiose claim that any widely traded (as much as any old pen can be "widely traded) pen has bumped hugely in value in couple months, stems from suspicion that he really wasn't much focused on the issues in play
-d
Email: isaacson@frontiernet.net
#18
Posted 28 August 2012 - 04:37 PM
d
Email: isaacson@frontiernet.net
#20
Posted 28 August 2012 - 05:12 PM
One could certainly conclude from George's data that the price variance could well have more to do with the quality/cache' of a given example than changes in overall demand (note first three pens descriptions begin with "missing" while last three begin with "complete").
One could also conclude by comparing apples to apples (i.e., "complete, filligree") that prices have increased over time. Two months seems a might short time span, though.
There's a reason, for example, why climatology data isn't considered significant unless there's at least 30 years worth of it. It takes a big picture to define an actual trend.
Tim
Hi Tim,
While always there is room for gut feelings and vague general impressions, such things are more sound when based on solid experience and on solid consideration of issues in play. I've been a bit obscure in my posts... for a reason
How to compare 452's?
Control for pattern
Control for condition
Control for venue
Control for season
Control for quality/feedback of seller.
Control for quality of photographs
Control for level of guarantee/warrantee from seller.
Awareness of historical price points in the setting of above.
Part of the poking at the OP, besides his somewhat grandiose claim that any widely traded (as much as any old pen can be "widely traded) pen has bumped hugely in value in couple months, stems from suspicion that he really wasn't much focused on the issues in play
-d
I'll play the game, i have been bidding regular amounts on the silver overlay 452 pens, and they've been going more than what i remember them at. I dont know, im wrong your right. Tell you the truth, when im buying i take a gamble, so really when i check out the feedback and everything is all good (doesn't matter if he has 5 feedback, or 5,000) if he's a frequent user on the bay and has over a 95% he's good. I mean i remember buying a lot of pens (blurry photo) but i could make out a Waterman, so that's why i bought it. It's like storage lockers, you cant just take a risk, you have to take a risk.
Edited by brando090, 28 August 2012 - 05:13 PM.
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